Andrei Cionca, co-founder of private equity funds ROCA and AGISTA, and initiator of the CONFIDEX study, said the level of confidence in the local economy hit a record high for the second half of 2024 since Impetum has been carrying out this study. Usually, managers become more pessimistic in the second half of the year but in 2024, the level of confidence decreased marginally to 52 points from 52.5% in the first half of 2024.
Andrei Cionca told the conference presenting the CONFIDEX study that the confidence index reached 52 points, which is the highest confidence level in the Romanian economy for the second half of 2024, as optimism usually prevails in the first half of the year. According to Cionca, the decrease is insignificant and the level is constant. He added that he did not expect Romania and Europe’s economic situation to be so poor in the last six months.
The CONFIDEX Index remains consistent with its H1 2024 value, reflecting a relatively stable year without major events that could significantly impact Romania’s economy. However, the business environment shows growing concern regarding both the future of the local economy in the current national and international context – and the performance of their companies.
According to the CONFIDEX H2 2024 study, supported by private equity funds ROCA, AGISTA, and CITR – the leader in Romania’s insolvency and restructuring market, only 29% of managers report optimism about the economy, a drop from 34% in the previous semester. Conversely, 34% of respondents express concern, a 6-percentage-point increase compared to H1 2024.
“Each edition of the CONFIDEX study reveals a seasonal pattern: business confidence in the economy tends to peak in spring, while pessimism emerges at year-end. However, in this 11th edition, the overall index value has remained relatively stable compared to H1 2024, signaling the resilience of Romanian entrepreneurs and managers. Despite facing unpredictability, they remain optimistic and solution-oriented—pursuing product diversification, digitalization, and growing trust in investors. This proactive attitude is crucial for fostering resilience and positioning Romania as a pillar of growth and stability in the region,” said Andrei Cionca.
Growing Business Confidence in Investors
Amid increasing capital diversification in the market, the perception of investors among entrepreneurs and managers has improved since H1 2024. Currently, 81% of managers report a positive or very positive opinion of investors.
“More entrepreneurs and managers recognize that long-term growth and business consolidation require a partner who brings not only financial resources but also expertise, strategic networks, and operational support. Over its four years of analysis, CONFIDEX has demonstrated that the Romanian business community is becoming increasingly aware of the need for a robust ecosystem that facilitates capital inflow into strategic sectors, while enabling investors to play an active role in local economic development,” explained Andrei Cionca.
Managers credit investors with contributing to the financial stability of the companies they invest in (70%) and strengthening business operations and management structures (60%).
Cautious Outlook for 2025 Amid Inflation and GDP Decline Projections
The 11th CONFIDEX edition highlights a cautious approach toward the current economic environment, marked by uncertainties and potential risks, such as political changes and market fluctuations.
The majority of managers (56%) anticipate rising inflation, while 1 in 3 expects Romania’s GDP to decline in the coming months. Additionally, 49% foresee an increase in unemployment, and 53% anticipate a depreciation of the Romanian leu against the euro, heightening concerns over financial stability.
One alarming aspect is the fact that 1 in 3 managers reports that their company’s situation has worsened, and half expect further deterioration in the next six months.
According to CONFIDEX, the most optimistic sectors include services (confidence index: 52.7), IT (52.9), and transportation, distribution, and warehousing (52.3). In contrast, agriculture (45.7) and energy (49.3) show more cautious outlooks.
Declining Profit Margins for 46% of Companies. Innovation as a Key to Competitiveness
Managers expect employee numbers and financing costs to remain stable. However, they foresee rising production and operational costs, along with increased sales prices, which raise concerns about profitability. Thus, 46% of companies predict declining profit margins, while 73% of respondents anticipate higher production and operating expenses over the next six months, and 61% plan to raise product and service prices, while only 42% consider investments in their companies during the same period.
Business priorities include sales growth (49%), employee retention (27%), digitalization and automation (27%), customer relationship improvements (25%), and access to financing (21%).
The key opportunities identified by Romanian business leaders include introducing innovative technologies (79%) and exploring new markets and clients (72%).
CONFIDEX, supported by private equity funds ROCA, AGISTA, and CITR – the leader in Romania’s insolvency and restructuring market, is the only longitudinal study in Romania that measures the confidence of Romanian managers in the economy and deciphers the challenges faced by the local business environment. Now in its 11th edition, the study has become a benchmark tool for business decision-making.
For 4 years now, the study has been providing a clear picture of the perceptions of businesspeople in Romania. By extrapolating trends, CONFIDEX offers interested parties a tool that helps them better understand the times we live in and make sound, well-argued decisions that positively impact the business environment and society as a whole.
More than 4,500 entrepreneurs and C-Level executives have contributed, across its 11 editions, to the establishment of extremely important benchmarks for the Romanian economy, particularly in uncertain times like the present. This latest edition involved over 1,000 managers and entrepreneurs from across the country.