The macroeconomic confidence index dropped to 43.4 points in October from 45.4 points in September, the lowest score since April 2013. The current conditions index reached 59.1 points, down 4.8 points, while the expectations index dropped 0.6 points, to 35.5 points, the lowest value since October 2012.
Around 89% of certified financial analysts expect the leu to weaken in the next 12 months.
Expectations regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate in the next 6 and 12 months stand at RON4.6421 and RON4.6817 to the euro, respectively.
The inflation rate is seen at 2.75% in the next 12 months (November 2017/November 2018), CFA Romania said in a statement.
Interest rates are expected to rise, 98% of analysts see the three-month rate growing and 93% see the five-year rate growing. The three-month ROBOR rate is seen at 2.63% in the next 12 months, while yields on five-year bonds are seen at 4.04% in the next 12 months.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).