Growth in 2015 will be driven by private consumption, a considerable contribution of gross capital in the private and public sectors, zero contribution from agriculture and a decline in exports, Coface notes.
In its basic scenario, Coface sees Romania’s real GDP growth at 2.7%, which may vary between 2.5 and 3% should the country have a good agricultural performance.
The IMF and the European Commission estimate Romania’s economic growth at 2.5% this year.
Coface sees annual inflation below 1% at the beginning of the year and expects it to rise towards the central bank’s target of 2.5% in the second half of the year. The average annual inflation is estimated not to exceed 2% in 2015.