“However, we don’t rule out a growth of over 1% this year, provided EU fund absorption increases and farming output exceeds expectations,” said Constantin Coman, country manager Coface Romania.
Coface has left its sovereign rating on Romania unchanged at “B”, meaning local companies pose a significant risk of defaulting on their own debt.
Romania has been under a ‘B’ rating since June 2009.
The rating agency expects Romanian trade deficit will widen by some 6% of the gross domestic product in 2013, with imports growing faster than exports.
Annual inflation is estimated at 5% in the first quarter, compared with a rate of 4.95% at the end of December. The year-end inflation is expected to come in at 4.3%.
Coface said the leu is likely to weaken to 4.5-4.55 against the euro in 2013, from 4.34 presently.