Coface is now publishing quarterly assessments of 13 sectors in 24 countries representing almost 85% of the world’s GDP, as well as 160 country risk assessments.
As for Romania, analysts rate the automotive and pharma industry at “minimum risk”, and the metals industry and the construction sector are classed as “medium risk”. All the other economic sectors, such as agriculture, IT&C, energy, retail, textile and transportation, are rated at “medium risk”, which is unchanged from the previous quarter.
Energy has improved its classification to “medium risk”, at both regional level and in Poland, boosted by the profitability of oil refining companies and the anticipated increase in demand. Metals are rated at “medium risk” at regional level and in Poland, thanks to new investments in infrastructure and the recovery of the automotive sector.
The Eurozone is in positive momentum, enjoying very favourable financing conditions, the support of investment for growth and a revival of corporate confidence. Insolvencies are down in almost all countries – except in the UK (which is being weakened by the slowdown in consumption) and in Belgium (the Eurozone’s fourth largest trading partner). In these two countries, insolvencies are expected to increase by +9% and +5%, respectively, in 2017 according to Coface’s forecasts.
Conflicting signals from the US economy (A2, low risk), along with the lack of clarity surrounding the fiscal stimulus package are signals for caution. Despite an improvement in GDP for Q1 (up from 0.7%, to 1.2%) and unemployment being at its lowest level in nearly sixteen years, household consumption is continuing to falter. Furthermore, credit growth is likely to slow, as a result of the expected rise in interest rates.