Romania saw a 3.8% increase in insolvencies, following a moderate upward trend, while Poland recorded the region’s sharpest rise, 17.8%. Next were Slovenia, where the number of insolvencies rose by 12.9%, Serbia (up 9.6%), and the Czech Republic (up 8.7%).
In contrast, significant declines were recorded in Croatia (18.6%), Slovakia (14.5%), Lithuania (13%), Latvia (7.4%), Hungary (6.6%), and Bulgaria (6.2%).
“The overall figures suggest stabilization, but the underlying reality is much more complex,” explains Mateusz Dadej, Regional Economist at Coface.
Differences between countries are widening, and insolvency trends are increasingly influenced by national factors such as regulatory frameworks, fiscal policy, and exposure to external demand, he added.
Looking at various sectors, trends were more consistent across the region. The largest increases in insolvencies were recorded in manufacturing, construction, and transportation – sectors sensitive to financing conditions and fluctuations in external demand.
Although the decline in inflation and interest rates has provided some relief, the delayed effects of previous cost shocks continue to affect liquidity, particularly for smaller companies.
Coface estimates that insolvency risks will intensify across the region in 2026, including in Romania, amid a new energy shock that will increase production costs and squeeze corporate margins, as demand remains fragile.
As a net energy importer, the region is particularly exposed to volatility in oil and natural gas prices. The rise in insolvencies in Germany, the region’s main trading partner, amplifies the risk of spillover effects through supply chains.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)