“Inflation forecasts kept rising and survey participants expect the annual inflation rate to remain in double-digit territory at least for the next 12 months” said Adrian Codirlasu, CFA – Vice-president of the CFA Romania Association.
Data collected by CFA in July 2022 shows that for the six-month horizon most analysts expect the leu to average 5.0291 to the euro.
CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index grew to 37.5 points in July 2022 due to the current conditions component increasing by over 10%.
The survey also shows Romania’s economy is projected to grow by 3.2% in real terms, while the budget deficit for 2022 reached the average value of projections, of 7.1% of GDP.
Romania’s three-month ROBOR index, the interbank interest rate used as a reference to calculate variable interests for loans in lei taken out before May 2019, is seen reaching 7.95% over the next 12-month horizon.
The survey also shows a declining share of respondents who expect prices of residential properties in Romania’s large cities to decrease over the next twelve months. Also, the share of participants who deem residential property prices in the country’s main cities as overrated saw a slight correction to 75% (the second highest level since the inception of the survey.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).