“Romania’s economy will continue to perform below potential, with the economic growth rate seen below 1% in 2026 too. Also, despite getting back on a disinflationary path in 2026, the process will be sluggish, while the inflation rate will remain high through 2026,” according to Adrian Codirlasu, President of CFA Romania Association.
The survey also shows an anticipated inflation rate of 6.13% for the 12-month horizon (December 2026).
As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 77% of participants in the survey forecast a leu depreciation over the next 12 months. The average value of expectations for the six-month horizon is 5.1313 per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the exchange rate is 5.1733.
The macroeconomic confidence index of CFA Romania Association increased by 6.8 points in November 2025, as its two components saw positive evolution. Thus, the anticipations component grew by 5.1 points to 34.2 points, while the current conditions advanced by 10.1 points to 42.4 points, mostly due to an enhanced outlook on current hiring.
The state budget deficit projected for 2025 saw an average value of expectations of 8.4% of gross domestic product (GDP). For 2026, the budget deficit is seen at 6.7%.
The country’s public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to surge to 61% in the next 12 months.
In terms of housing prices across cities and towns, 55% of respondents project stagnation in the next 12 months. Also, 50% of participants believe current prices are overvalued and 46% that prices are accurately assessed.