“Inflation expectations have returned to an upward trend, pointing to two-digit inflation for the entire 2023,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
In line with data collected by CFA in November, for the 6-month horizon most analysts included in the monthly survey anticipate a leu exchange rate of 5.0279 units per euro.
As regards the Macroeconomic confidence index of CFA, it rose marginally to 33.7 points.
The state budget gap for 2022 reached the average value of expectations of 6.6%, while the real-time evolution of GDP in 2022 is estimated at 3.3%, down from 4.5% in the previous forecast.
For 2023, the anticipated value of real GDP growth is of 1.3%.
At the same time, the three-month ROBOR is expected to reach 8.22% in the next 12 months, slightly down from 8.39% in the previous forecast.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)