“In line with the expectations of CFA Romania community, joining the eurozone has become more distant for Romania. What has caused this development is particularly the fiscal policy of recent years. High and persistent budgetary gaps generate high inflation, high interest rates and high public debt,” stated Adrian Codirlasu, CFA, President of CFA Romania Association.
Thus, the anticipations component of the index rose by 4.4 points at the end of last year, to 38.6, while the current conditions one dropped by 10.6 points.
As regards macroeconomic conditions, managers expect a 6.65% inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (January 2027), up from the value of the November survey, and 68% of participants however forecast an inflation decline in the next 12 months from its current value.
As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 96% of respondents expect the Romanian currency to depreciate in the next 12 months.
Thus, the average value of anticipations for the next 6 months is RON5,1375 per euro, with RON5,1894per euro expected for the 12-month period.
With regard to the evolution of housing prices in cities, 59% of respondents expect stagnation in the next 12 months. Also, 64% of respondents believe current prices are overvalued and 32% that they are accurately assessed.
The anticipated budgetary gap for the current year registered the average value of anticipations of 7% in GDP.
Economic growth expectations for 2025 are at the average value of 0.8%. For 2026, the economy is projected to grow by 0.9%.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 61% in the next 12 months.
Managers’ expectations regarding Romania’s joining the eurozone point to an over 13-year horizon, compared with an 11-year one in 2024.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)