“Amid the recession risk and economic uncertainty, the confidence index and particularly the current conditions component continued to shrink,” stated Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association President.
The anticipated rate of inflation for the 12-month period (March 2026) stood at the average value of 4.85%.
In terms of the exchange rate, over 94% of respondents expect the local currency to decline in the next 12 months and the rest forecast stagnation. Thus, the average value of anticipations for the six-month period is 5.0306 units/euro, with 5.1015 units/euro for the 12-month period.
The state budget gap forecast for 2025 rose from the previous survey to the average expectations value of 7.4% in GDP.
2025 economic growth expectations average 1.1%, down from the previous survey.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 59% in the next 12 months.
With regard to housing prices in cities, 39% of respondents expect stagnation in the next 12 months, while 50% forecast a decline. Also, 72% of respondents believe current prices are overvalued and 28% see them as accurately assessed.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON loans contracted before May 2019, is expected to reach 5.83% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)