The two components of the index diverged. The anticipations component of the index increased by 8.6 points to 33.6, while the current conditions component continued its decline by 2.2 points to 37.5, reflecting worsening of current conditions.
In comparison, the Macroeconomic Confidence Index fell 14.9 points to 29.9 points in June.
“With Romania’s rating confirmed and the fiscal package set, the anticipations component has increased. As the state of the economy continues to deteriorate, the current conditions component has continued to decline. However, the level of the indicator and both of its components continue to indicate recessionary conditions,” says Adrian Codirlașu, CFA – President of the CFA Romania Association.
The anticipated inflation rate for the next 12 months (August 2026) went up against the June value, to 6.46%, while 56% of the respondents expect inflation to increase over the next 12 months. At the time of the survey, the inflation rate stood at 5.66%.
As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 94% of CFA survey participants expect a leu depreciation in the next 12 months. The average value of anticipations for the 6-month period is RON5.1015/EUR, with RON5.1716/EUR for the 12-month horizon.
In terms of housing prices in cities, 69% of participants expect stagnation in the next 12 months, while 31% see a decline.
At the same time, 69% of respondents believe current prices are overvalued and 35% that they are accurately assessed.
The anticipated state budget deficit for 2025 inched up against the previous survey, to the average value of anticipations of 7.6% in GDP.
2025 economic growth projections are down from the previous survey to the average value of 0.8%, with some respondents also forecasting a possible recession.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to go up to 59% in the next 12 months.
An additional question introduced in the survey refers to expectations about Romania being downgraded to junk status.
Thus, all participants expect Romania to be kept in the investment grade category in the next 12 months.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)