Thus, the expectations component rose by 2.8 points to 37, while the current component one dropped by 4.8 points to 38.6.
“The level of the index and both its components continue to indicate recession conditions,” says Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association President.
The association’s September survey indicates a rising anticipated rate of inflation for the 12-month horizon (September 2026) against the value registered in the previous month to 7.18%, as 63% of respondents expect inflation to fall from its curent value.
The anticipated budgetary gap for the current year increased significantly from the previous survey, to the average value of anticipations of 8.6% in GDP.
As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 88% of participants forecast a leu depreciation in the next 12 months, while the rest expect stability. The average value of expectations for the six-month horizon is 5.1216 per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the exchange rate is 5.1841/euro.
In terms of housing prices in cities, 61% of respondents expect stagnation in the next 12 months. Also, 50% of participants believe current prices are overvalued and 46% that prices are accurately assessed.
Economic growth expectations for 2025 are at the average value of 0.8%, but there were also opinions among respondents about a possible recession.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 59% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)