The advance was particularly due to the strong increase of the anticipations component of the index, by 15.2 points, while the current conditions component rose by 4.3 points.
“As the risk of a presidential election outcome that would have led Romania on a trajectory toward euroscepticism has disappeared, the confidence index soared in May. However, Romania economy risk remains high and is especially caused by the unsustainable budgetary gap. Amid uncertainty, especially of fiscal nature, the economy is expected to register modest growth, with a recession scenario for this year not being ruled out,” stated Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association President.
In this context, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (June 2026) went up against the March value, to 4.87%.
As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 70% of CFA survey participants expect a leu depreciation in the next 12 months. The average value of anticipations for the 6-month period is 5.1046/euro, with 5.1723/euro for the 12-month horizon.
In terms of housing prices in cities, 60% of participants expect stagnation in the next 12 months, while 25% anticipate a decline.
At the same time, 60% of respondents believe current prices are overvalued and 35% that they are accurately assessed.
The anticipated state budget gap for 2025 inched down against the previous survey, to the average value of anticipations of 7.7% in GDP.
2025 economic growth projections rose from the previous survey, to the average value of 1%, with some respondents also forecasting a possible recession.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to go up to 59% in the next 12 months.
An additional question introduced in the survey refers to expectations about Romania’s being downgraded to junk status.
Thus, 74% of participants expect Romania to be kept in the investment grade category, while 26% anticipate a downgrade to junk.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)