The increase came amid the advance of both components of the index. Thus, the anticipations component went up by 7.5 points to 30.8 points, while the current conditions one advanced by 4.9 points to 52.7 points.
“While in December, after the plunge of the previous month, the macroeconomic confidence index registered a correction, this remains at an extremely low level amid the high uncertainty about the evolution of the Romanian economy. Also, worth noticing are the decline in economic growth expectations for 2025, as well as rising expectations about the budgetary gap,” stated Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
Financial analysts part of the association expect inflation to average 5.02% in the next 12 months.
As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 85% of respondents participating in CFA survey expect the local currency to decline in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of anticipations for the next six months stands at 5.040 units/euro, and at 5.0886 units/euro for the next 12 months.
In terms of housing prices in cities, 39% of analysts see prices stagnate in the next 12 months, while 32% foresee an increase and 29% a decline. Also, 68% of participants consider current prices as overvalued and 29% accurately valued.
The estimated budgetary gap for 2025 went up to the average value of anticipations of 7.3% in GDP.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 57% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)