“Amid expectations of further budgetary gap reduction, the anticipations component of the index continued to improve in February,” says Adrian Codirlasu, president of CFA Romania Association.
The anticipations component added 2.6 points, to 51.2 points, while the current conditions one remained relatively stable, with a marginal 0.2-point decline.
The anticipated rate of inflation for the 12-month horizon inched up from the previous month, to 5.88%. Nevertheless, 81% of survey respondents expect an inflation decline in the next 12 months from the current level.
CFA analysts mention the survey was carried out in the last week of February and the results do not include the impact of the Iran conflict.
As regards the exchange rate, most analysts (81%) forecast a local currency decline in the next 12 months, while 19% expect it to stagnate. The average expected EUR/RON exchange rate is RON5.1280 for the six-month horizon and RON5.1642 for 12 months.
As regards the real estate market, 43% of participants expect prices to remain unchanged in the next year. At the same time, 57% believe the current price level is overvalued and 43% consider it as accurate.
The budgetary deficit estimation for 2026 was downwardly revised by 0.5%, to 6.1% of GDP.
Economic growth expectations for 2026 were downwardly adjusted to an average of 0.9%.
At the same time, public debt is expected to rise, being put at around 62% of GDP in the next 12 months.
The three-month ROBOR is projected to fall to 5.17% in the next 12 months, from the current 5.87% level.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)