Nevertheless, the index has remained below the neutral threshold of 50 for 26 months, reveals the association’s latest survey.
The current conditions component increased by 1.1points to 38 points, while the indicator about the evolution of the economy in the next 12 months climbed by 4.6 points, to 45.4 points.
“The confidence index increased in September, amid improving expectation about the evolution of the Romanian economy, but has remained below the neutral threshold of 50 points for 26 months,” says Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association president.
As regards the exchange rate evolution, 96% of survey participants expect the Romanian currency to depreciate in the next 12 months. The average estimated exchange rate is 5.3246 units per euro for the next six months and 5.3893 units for the next 12 months.
At the same time, the anticipated rate of inflation for the next 12 months, October 2027 respectively, dropped from the previous estimate, to 5.77%, while 54% of survey participant expect inflation to decline during this period, in line with CFA Romania data.
Economic growth outlooks are modest, with CFA Association analysts indicating a GDP increase of jut 0.1% in 2026, with opinions pointing to the possibility of the economy slipping into recession also being registered.
At the same time, the budgetary gap forecast for 2026 was downwardly revised by 0.3% from the previous survey, to an average value of 5.5% of GDP. Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is projected to reach 62% in the next 12 months.
With regard to the real estate market, 48% of analysts expect city housing prices to stagnate in the next 12 months, while 33% anticipate a decline and 19% an increase. At the same time, 59% of respondents believe current housing prices are overvalued and 33% of them consider them accurately assessed.
Amid geopolitical tensions and the Iran war, the survey also included a question about Brent oil price evolution in the next 12 months. CFA Romania analysts estimate Brent oil prices are likely to reach an average of 92 $ per barrell in the next six months but warn uncertainties regarding the evolution of prices remain high.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)