The current conditions indicator went up by 8.1 points to 36.9 points and the anticipations one added 6.1 points to 47.9 points.
“The confidence indicator rose in July owing to the to the confirmation of the investment grade rating of Romania by rating agencies. Consistent with the improvement of the confidence in the economy, inflationary expectations also improved significantly. So did the expectations about the exchange rate trend and interest rates. However, the economy will continue to stagnate, and the risk of recession remains,” stated Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association President.
Analysts expect inflation to go down over the coming year. The anticipated rate of inflation for the 12-month period (August 2027) dropped to 6.32% from the current 8.16% and 90% of participants expect inflation to fall in the next 12 months.
As for the exchange rate, 84% of CFA survey participants forecast the local currency will depreciate in the next 12 months, while 16% expect it to stagnate. Thus, the average estimated exchange rate is 5.2901 units per euro for the next six months and 5.3445 units per euro for the 12-month period.
The state budget gap projected for 2026 narrowed slightly from the previous survey by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% of GDP.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is anticipated to rise to 63% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)