The anticipations component went up by 0.5 points to 34.2 points, while the current conditions one increased by 5.8 points to 43.4.
“Amid Romania rating confirmation, the confidence indicator registered an increase in the past two months. However, the level of the indicator and both its components are still pointing to recessionary conditions. Also, macroeconomic imbalances, as well as the fiscal policy unpredictability, will preserve uncertainty with regard to the evolution of the Romanian economy, which is also reflected by the anticipations component of the indicator,” commented Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association President.
The CFA survey points to a rising anticipated rate of inflation for the 12-month horizon (September 2026) against the value registered in the previous month, of 6.63%.
As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 83% of participants forecast a leu depreciation in the next 12 months, while 10% expect stability. The average value of expectations for the six-month horizon is 5.1024 per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the exchange rate is 5.1522/euro.
An additional question introduced in the survey refers to expectations about Romania’s being downgraded to junk status. Thus, 88% of respondents expect Romania to be maintained in the investment grade category in the next 12 months.
In terms of housing prices in cities, 43% of respondents expect stagnation in the next 12 months, while the same 43% percentage anticipate a decline. Also, 67% of participants believe current prices are overvalued and 27% that prices are accurately assessed.
The anticipated budgetary gap for the current year edged up against the previous survey, to the average value of anticipations of 7.7% of GDP.
Economic growth expectations for 2025 are slightly down from the previous survey, to an average value of 0.7%, but there were also opinions among respondents about a possible recession.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 60% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)