“Amid risk aversion, caused both by external and internal factors, the local currency weakened, exceeding the expectations average both for the 6-month and 12-month horizon. Also, anticipations about 2026 economic growth registered considerable declines and the risk of recession in 2026 rose substantially,” says Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association president.
In line with the survey, the current conditions component dropped 0.7 points, while the anticipations indicator inched up, by 0.2%, resulting in a 0.1 point-increase in the economic confidence indicator.
As regards the exchange rate, around 80% of participants anticipate leu depreciation in the next 12 months, while 12% see stagnation. Thus, the average estimated exchange rate is 5.1650 units per euro for the next six months and 5.2252 units per euro for the 12-month period.
At the same time, CFA analysts significantly reduced their estimates about economic evolution. 2026 economic growth anticipations slid to 0.4% from 0,7% in the previous survey.
The anticipated rate of inflation for the next 12 months decreased slightly to 7.41%, but remains high compared to the central bank target. Almost half of respondents, namely 46%, expect an inflation decline in the next 12 months, while 31% forecast rising prices.
With regard to the housing market, 64% of respondents expect jousting prices to stagnate in the next 12 months, while 72% consider current prices are overvalued.
The estimated 2026 budgetary gap was reviewed slightly downwards, to 6.4% of GDP, but public debt is forecast to climb to 61% of GDP in the next 12 months.
The average estimated value of the 3-month ROBOR reaches 5.9% in the next 12 months, slightly above the current level of 5.84%. At the same time, amid geopolitical tensions and the Iran war, the survey also included a question about Brent oil price evolution.
Respondents anticipate a price of $93/barrel, $10 lower than in the previous survey.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)