The decline was exclusively attributed to the anticipations component of the index, which dropped by 16.9 points, while the current conditions one added 2.1 points.
In this context, analysts estimate an inflation rate for the 12-month horizon of 4.78%.
“The risk of a presidential election outcome that would have led Romania on a Euroscepticism trajectory generated a strong decline of the anticipations component, which drove the macroeconomic index to the lowest post-pandemic value. At the same time, the anticipated budgetary gap for the current year expanded toward 8% of GDP and estimated economic growth dropped below 1%,” stated Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association President.
As regards the foreign exchange rate, around 86% of managers included in the CFA survey expect the local currency to depreciate in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of anticipations for the 6-month horizon is 5,0494/euro and 5,1112/euro for the 12-month horizon.
In terms of housing prices in cities, 43% of respondents expect stagnation in the next 12 months, while 50% anticipate a decline. Also, 78% of participants believe current prices are overvalued and 14% that prices are accurately assessed.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 57% in the next 12 months.
An additional question introduced in the survey refers to expectations about Romania’s being downgraded to junk status. Thus, 64% of respondents expect Romania to be maintained in the investment grade category in the next 12 months, while 36% expect a downgrade to junk.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)