The decline comes amid expectations of rising taxes and a potential country rating downgrade.
“The current index level points to a very high recession risk. And the possible recession overlaps rising inflation amid an increase in indirect taxes. An extremely unfortunate combination owed to recent years’ strongly pro-cyclical fiscal policy,” says Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association President.
In line with CFA data, the macroeconomic confidence index in June dropped by 14.9 points to 29.9 points. The decline came as both components of the index plunged. Thus, the anticipations component dropped by 16 points to 25, while the current conditions one fell by 12.8 points to 39.7, a level compatible with a recession situation, according to financial analysts.
The anticipated rate of inflation for the next 12 months (until July 2026) rose from the level registered in the previous month, to 5.35%.
As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 82% of participants in the survey expect a RON depreciation in the next 12 months, with no opinions about a possible increase. The average value of anticipations for a 6-month horizon is 5.0961/euro, and for 12 months the estimates average point to 5.1453/euro.
The anticipated state budget gap for 2025 registered a slight decline from the previous survey, to the average value of anticipations of 7.5% of GDP.
2025 economic growth projections edged down to 0.9%. At the same time, some respondents take into account the possibility of Romania entering recession.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is forecast to rise to 60% in the next 12 months.
In terms of housing prices in cities, 52% of participants expect a stagnation in the next 12 onths and 35% anticipate a decline. At the same time, 65% of respondents consider current prices as overvalued, while 35% of them believe they are accurately assessed.
An additional question introduced in the survey refers to expectations about Romania’s being downgraded to junk status.
Thus, 88% of participants expect Romania to be kept in the investment grade category, up from the previous survey. Instead, just 11% anticipate a downgrade to junk, significantly down from the previous survey.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)