CFA analysts expects the Romanian leu to depreciate to 4.84 units per euro in the next 12 months and the annual inflation rate to reach 4.15%.
The macroeconomic confidence index measured by CFA Romania grew by 11.6 points to 46.6 points month-on-month in April 2019, but it fell by 2.9 points compared to April 2018, due to the expectations and current conditions components of the index.
The current conditions index increased by 12.8 points month-on-month in April, up to 59.9 points, but it fell by 6.1 points year-on-year in April. The expectations index grew by 11.1 points month-on-month in April, up to 39.9 points, but it fell by 1.2 points year-on-year in April.
CFA analysts expect the Romanian leu to depreciate over the next 12 months, seeing an average of 4.7859 lei to the euro in the six-month horizon and an average 4.8481 lei to the euro in the 12-month horizon.
The expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (May 2020/May 2019) stands at 4.15%.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).