Estimates come in the context in which the macroeconomic confidence index measured by CFA Romania fell by 15.6 points month-on-month in December 2018, down to 28.7 points, and by 12.3 points year-on-year in December 2018, due to both components of the index.
The current conditions index dropped by 9.1 points month-on-month in December, down to 46.4 points, and by 12.5 points year-on-year in December.
The expectations index dropped by 18.8 points month-on-month in December, down to 19.9 points, and by 12.2 points year-on-year in December.
Over 87% of financial analysts expect an average exchange rate of 4.7168 lei to the euro over the next six months, and of 4.7883 lei to the euro over the next 12 months.
The inflation rate is seen at an average 3.93% for the next 12 months (January 2020/January 2019).
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).