„Expectations regarding the average EUR/RON exchange rate in the next six and 12 months stand at RON4.7046 to the euro and RON4.7603,“ according to CFA Romania.
On Friday (June 22), the central bank set the leu’s reference rate versus the euro at 4.6686 units. Nearly 90% of the participants polled expect a depreciation of the leu over the next year.
The macroeconomic confidence index measured by CFA Romania fell by nine points to 41.5 points month-on-month in May 2018, due to the expectations and current conditions components of the index. The index fell by 25.1 points compared with May 2017.
The current conditions index dropped by 9.5 points, to 56.9 points, month-on-month in May 2018, and by 27 points year-on-year in May 2018. The expectations index decreased by 7.2 points, to 33.8 points, month-on-month in May 2018, but by 24.1 points year-on-year in May 2018.
The inflation rate is seen at 4.58% in the next 12 months (May 2019/May 2018), CFA Romania also said in its statement.
The three-month ROBOR index, used to calculate interests on loans in lei with variable interest, is expected to reach 3.45% in the next 12 months.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon.
The macroeconomic confidence index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).