In parallel, the Macroeconomic Confidence of CFA Romania Association in January rose by 2.3 points to 40.4 points. This came amid the advance of both its components.
In line with the survey, the local currency will decline to an average exchange rate of 5.1595 units/euro in the next 12 months, while the anticipated rate of inflation for the 12-month horizon (February 2026) stands at the average value of 4.97%.
For the 6-month horizon, financial analysts forecast an exchange rate of 5.0759 units/euro.
The state budget gap projected for 2025 remained at the average expectations value of 7.3% in GDP.
“In the current year as well, the main challenges for the Romanian economy will be the high budgetary gap, economic growth below potential, as well as inflation,” says Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania Association President.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is expected to reach 5.75% in the next 12 months.
With regard to the evolution of housing prices in cities, 29% of respondents expect stagnation in the next 12 months, while 45% forecast an increase and 29% a decline.. Also, 62% of participants believe current prices are overvalued, and 33% that they are accurately valued.
Public debt calculated as a percentage in GDP is forecast to climb to 55% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)