“The main risks anticipated by respondents for 2025 are both economic ones, rising taxes and recession, as well as non-economic ones, including disinformation and armed conflicts. The economy is performing below potential this year and will continue to decelerate next year,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
On the other hand, the macroeconomic confidence index of the association rose in October, by 4.8 points to 44.9 points, mainly owing to the 7.3-point increase of the anticipations component of the index, while the current conditions component remained relatively constant.
In line with the survey, the Romanian currency will decline to an average exchange rate of 5.0964 units/euro in the next 12 months, while the anticipated rate of inflation edged down from the previous survey to an average value of 4.72%.
At the same time, around 33% of participants forecast an inflation decrease in the next 12 months and about 39% project relative stability of the indicator.
In line with CFA data collected in November 2024, for the 6-month horizon financial analysts expect an exchange rate of 5.0627 units/euro.
The 2024 projected state budget went up to the average value of anticipations of 7.8% in GDP. It is expected to go down to 6.5% next year.
Also, the three-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans taken out before May 2019 is expected to reach 5.40% in the next 12 months.
With regard to the evolution of housing prices in cities, 44% of participants expect them to go down in the next 12 months, while 33% forecast a stagnation. Also, 72% of respondents believe current prices are overvalued and 28% that they are accurately valued.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to rise to 57% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)