In line with data CFA collected in July, for the 6-month horizon 73% of financial analysts included in the monthly survey anticipate an exchange rate for the local currency of 4.9964 units/euro.
As regards CFA’s macroeconomic confidence indicator, it posted marginal growth in July, by 1.3 points to 55.5 points.
“This was due to the current conditions component, which posted a 5-point increase to 72.1 points,” say CFA analysts.
The state budget gap for 2023 reached the average value of expectations of 5.7%, rising from the previous survey (5.5%), while the real term growth of GDP in 2023 is estimated at 2.8%, from 2.5% previously.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is forecast to reach 6.10% in the next 12 months.
“Amid the high budgetary gap and expectations for indirect tax hikes, confidence in the future evolution of the economy continues to dwindle. In line with this evolution, 2023 budgetary gap expansion forecasts have also increased,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
Referring to the evolution of housing prices in cities, 39% of respondents expect them to decline, while 58% project stability in the next 12 months.
Also, 62% of them believe current prices are overvalued, and 27% that they are accurately assessed.
In parallel, public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 54% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)