“Economic deceleration despite the significant fiscal impulse, as well as uncertainty regarding the fiscal policy conduit in the coming year led to a continuation of the downward trend of the confidence indicator,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
In line with the survey, the local currency will decline to an average exchange rate of 5.0975 units/euro in the next 12 months, while the anticipated rate of inflation remained relatively steady against the previous survey, at an average value of 4.97%.
At the same time, around 47% of respondents expect inflation to decline in the next 12 months and around 27% anticipate stability or growth.
In line with data CFA collected in September 2024, for the six-month horizon around 88% of financial analysts included in the monthly survey anticipate an exchange rate of 5.0407/euro.
The state budget gap forecast for 2024 remained at the average value of anticipations of 7.3% of GDP, while for 2025 it is expected to slide to 5.9%.
As regards economic growth expectations for the current year, they continued to fall against previous surveys and stand at 1.7%. For next year, the economy is projected to grow by 1.1%, with some respondents also anticipating recession.
Also, the three-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans taken out before May 2018, this is expected to reach 5.12% in the next 12 months.
With regard to the evolution of housing prices in cities, 44% of respondents expect a decline in the next 12 months, while 38% forecast stagnation. Also, 38% of participants believe current prices are accurately valued, and 25% that they are overvalued.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is seen rising to 56% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)