The macroeconomic confidence index of the association edged down in July, by 0.2 points to 52.0 points, impacted by the 1.3-point decline of the anticipations component, while the current conditions component went up by 2.2 points.
The anticipated rate of inflation for the 12-month horizon went down from the previous survey to an average value of 4.43%.
At the same time, around 47% of respondents expect the inflation rate to slide in the next 12 months, while 41% forecast stability.
As regards the exchange rate, around 82% of respondents estimate the leu will decline in the next 12 months, while the rest expect stagnation.
“The main risk for Romania’s financial stability is related to fiscal policy. The budgetary gap is put by respondents at over 7% of GDP this year. This gap is also associated with slightly lower economic growth expectations for this year,” stated Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
With regard to housing prices in cities, the largest part of respondents, 59%, expect a stagnation in the next 12 months. Also, 41% of respondents believe current prices are accurately assessed, while 59% deem them as overvalued.
The budgetary gap forecast for 2024 continued to rise, reaching 7.1% of GDP, while 2024 economic growth estimates continued to fall, standing at 2.5%.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to rise to 54% in the next 12 months.
In July, CFA also carried out a survey regarding expectations about Romania’s joining the eurozone. The expectations average is an 11-year horizon. Anticipated values ranged between 5 and 20 years. There was also an opinion that Romania will not join the bloc.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)