In line with data collected by CFA in September, the Romanian currency will decline to an average exchange rate of 5.0607/euro, while the anticipated rate of inflation with post an average value of 6.86%, down from 7.58% in the previous survey.
For the 6-month horizon, 84% of financial analysts included in the monthly survey project an exchange rate of 5.0169 unit/euro.
As regards the macroeconomic confidence index of CFA, this inched down in September, by 0.5 points to 47.4 points, on the decline in the current conditions component.
“The slower economic growth and the new fiscal measures reflected in the current conditions component of the confidence indicator, which dropped by 6.6 points from the previous survey,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
The real term growth of GDP in 2023 is put at 2.2%, from 2.1% in the previous survey.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is expected to reach 5.90% in the next 12 months.
With regard to the evolution of housing prices in cities, 53% of respondents project they will go down, while 42% expect stability in the next 12 months.
At the same time, 73% of the participants believe current prices are overvalued, and 21% deem them as accurately valued.
In parallel, public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is forecast to rise to 54% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)