For the six-month horizon, most analysts included in the monthly survey (81%) anticipate an exchange rate for the local currency of 4.9814 units per euro.
As regards the Macroeconomic Confidence Index of CFA, it went up in March, for the fifth month in a row, by 4 points to 57.1 points. The increase was due to the expectations component, which posted a 7.7-point advance to 53.6 points.
The real term growth of GDP for 2023 is estimated at 3%, up from 2.4% in the previous forecast.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR index, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted ahead of May 2019, it is projected to hit 6.20% in the next 12 months.
“Amid the positive news from the economy, analysts’ confidence strengthened further in March, in line with the improvement of the 2023 economic growth expectations. Also, expectations for the continuation of the disinflation process also improved,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
As regards the evolution of housing prices in cities, 47.6% of respondents expect them to stabilize, while the same percentage anticipate a decline in the next 12 months. Also, 81% of them believe current prices are overvalued and 19% that they are accurately valued.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)