In line with data collected by CFA in May, for the six-month horizon most analysts (85%) included in the monthly survey forecast an exchange rate for the local currency of 5.0146 units per euro.
As regards CFA’s macroeconomic confidence index, it went up in May (by 4 points) to 59 points. The increase was due to the anticipations component, with posted an 8-point advance, to 56.7 points.
The state budget gap for 2023 reached the average value of anticipations, of 4.8%, while the real term growth of GDP in 2023 is estimated at 2.7%, slightly down from the 2.8% value included in the previous prognosis.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted ahead of May 2019 is projected to reach 6.12% in the next 12 months.
„In line with the survey results, the disinflationary process is continuing, with inflationary expectations reaching the lowest value since 2013. There are also expectations for a slight interest rate reduction. However, in this economic cycle, both the inflation rate and interest rates will stabilize at significantly higher values than the ones registered between the two crises: the subprime one and the corona one,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
With regard to housing prices in cities, 61.5% of respondents expect them to stabilize, while 38.5% anticipate a decline in the next 12 months.
Also, 46% consider current prices as overvalued, while 54% believe they are accurately valued.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 54% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)