In July, analysts had projected a 4.4% inflation for August 2025.
At the same time, 50% of respondents in CFA’s monthly survey expect an inflation decline in the next 12 months, while 33% expect stability.
As regards the exchange rate, around 89% of respondents see the Romanian currency depreciating in the next 12 months and the rest of 11% forecast stagnation. Thus, the average value of expectations for the next 6 months stands at 5.0098 unit/Euro, while for the next 12 months the average value of expectations is 5.0735 units/Euro.
The macroeconomic indicator of the association dropped in August, by 5.2 points to 46.8 points. This was due to the 10.2-point decrease of the anticipations component of the indicator, while the current conditions component rose by 4.9 points.
“A divergent evolution of the indicator components can be noticed. While the current conditions component rises, the anticipations one is plunging, as high-frequency macroeconomic indicators point to an economic slowdown and forecasts of an extremely high public gap lead to rising taxation expectations for next year,” stated Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
Regarding the evolution of housing prices in cities, 39% of respondents expect stagnation or a decline in the next 12 months, while 22% project growth. At the same time, 28% of respondents believe current prices are accurately assessed, while 67% deem them as overvalued.
The budgetary gap forecast for 2024 continued to rise and is projected at 7.3% of GDP, while economic growth forecasts for the current year continued to drop against previous surveys and stand at 2.0%.
Public debt is expected to go swell to 55% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)