The expected inflation rate for June 2025 is lower than in the previous year and stood at an average of 4.67%.
At the same time, some 71% of the participants to the survey expect the inflation rate to go down in the next 12 months. Most (46%) see the inflation entering the target interval of 1.5% to 3.5% in 2026.
As for the EUR/RON exchange rate, about 86% expect the leu to depreciate, while the rest to stagnate in the next 12 months.
They see the exchange rate at RON5.0133/EUR in six months and RON5.0722/EUR in 12 months.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Index of CFA Romania increased by 4.7 points to 52.1 points in June, as a result of an increase in both its components.
“June came with an additional upwards revision of the expected budget deficit for this year. Expectations for both inflation rate and interest rates continued their downward trend. However, reducing the inflation towards the target will be slow, expected in 2026, and the main risk will be the fiscal policy, as an increase in taxation is extremely likely next year,” says Adrian Codirlasu, vice-president of the CFA Romania association.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)