Data collected by CFA shows that for the six-month horizon, analysts expect the leu to average 5.0080 to the euro.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Index of CFA Romania Association increased by 5.4 points to 43.3 points due to the current conditions component growing by 6.3 points and the expectations component by 5 points.
The survey also shows that state budget deficit for 2023 reached the average value of expectations of 5.3%, while the GDP trend in real terms in 2023 is estimated at 1.9%, lower than the previous forecast.
At the same time, the three-month ROBOR index, the interbank interest rate used as a reference to calculate variable interests for loans in lei taken out before May 2019, is envisaged to reach 6.71% in the next 12 months. The country’s public debt is seen surging to 57%.
Most financial analysts of the CFA Romania association believe that the prices of residential properties are currently overrated, with 60% of them anticipating a decline in prices in the next 12 months.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).