For the next six months horizon, most analysts (81%) expect the leu to average 5 units per euro.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Index of CFA Romania Association in February rose by 9.9 points to 53.2 points, supported both by the 9.1 point increase of the current conditions component and the 10.2 point advance of the expectations component.
“Amid the positive news related to the falling prices of various types of energy and the upward revision of economic growth projections both in developed economies and emerging countries, CFA Romania’s confidence index continued its advance. In February, the index registered a significant increase in both its components. Another impact of declining energy prices is inflationary expectations falling to a 10-month low,” stated Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of the Association.
As regards the evolution of housing property prices in cities, 52% of participants in the CFA survey expect stabilization, while 43% forecast a decline in the next 12 months. Also, 62% believe current prices are overvalued and a third consider they are accurately valued.
The 2023 estimated state budget gap stands at 5.1%.
Public debt to GDP is expected to rise to 57% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)