In line with data CFA collected in August, for the 6-month horizon 81% of the financial analysts included in the monthly survey forecast an exchange rate of 5.0119 unit/euro.
As regards CFA’s macroeconomic confidence indicator, this plunged in August by 7.5 points, to 47.9 points on the decline of both its components.
“In the context of the expected tax hikes, the confidence indicator nosedived in August,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
In line with survey data, the state budget gap for 2023 reached the average value of expectations of 5.5%, slightly down from the previous survey (5.7%), while the real term growth of GDP in 2023 is put at 2.1%, from 2.8% in the previous prognosis.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is expected to reach 6.10% in the next 12 months.
With regard to the evolution of housing prices in cities, 50% of respondents expect them to go down, while 44% of participants forecast stability in the next 12 months. Also, 68% of respondents believe current prices are overvalued and 31% deem they are accurately valued.
In parallel, public debt calculated as a percentage in GDP is expected to go up to 55% in the coming 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)