This comes amid the strong decline of both its components. Thus, the anticipations component dropped by 12.1 points, to 23.3 points, the lowest since January 2019. At the same time, the current conditions component decreased by 16.4 points, to 47.8 points.
“Amid the extremely high political uncertainty and investors’ soaring risk aversion, the confidence index dropped to levels only reached during the pandemic,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania association.
In line with the survey, the local currency will fall to an average exchange rate of 50831 units/euro in the next 12 months, while the anticipated rate of inflation rose to an average value of 5%.
At the same time, 59% of CFA respondents expect inflation to rise in the next 12 months, while 27% forecast stagnation.
In line with data CFA collected in November 2024, for the six-month period financial analysts project an exchange rate of 5.0310 units/euro.
The estimated 2025 state budget gap went up to the average value of anticipations of 7.2% in GDP.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans taken out before May 2019, is expected to reach 5.83% in the next 12 months.
With regard to prices of housing units in cities, 50% of respondents expect stagnation in the next 12 months, while 32% project a decline. Also, 68% of them believe current prices are overvalued and 27% that they are accurately valued.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 58% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)