In parallel, the Romanian currency will decline to an average rate of 5.0438 units/EUR in the next 12 months against the current value, while the 3-month ROBOR used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted ahead of May 2019 is projected to reach 6.32% in the next 12 months.
In line with data CFA collected in June, for the 6-month horizon most analysts (94%) included in the monthly survey of the association anticipate an exchange rate for the local currency of 4.9894 units/EUR.
As regards CFA’s macroeconomic confidence index, it dropped in June (by 4.8 points) to 54.2 points. The decline was due to the anticipations component, which slid by 9.1 points to 47.7 points.
The 2023 state budget gap reached the average value of expectations, of 5.5%, substantially up from the previous survey (4.8%), while the real term growth of GDP in 2023 is put at 2.5%, slightly down from the 2.7% rate included in the previous prognosis.
„Amid the high budgetary gap and indirect tax increase expectations, economic confidence has declined. In line with this evolution, a certain revival of inflationary expectations can be noticed. Thus, the anticipated rate of inflation for the next 12 months, as well as the 3-month ROBOR were up against the previously forecast levels. At the same time, as additional taxes lead to demand contraction, economic growth expectations also fell against the previous projections,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
In terms of housing prices in cities, 50% of respondents expect them to decline, while 31.3% of them forecast stability in the next 12 months.
Also, 68% of the respondents believe current prices are overvalued, while 25% consider them to be correctly assessed.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 55% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)