As regards CFA’s macroeconomic confidence index, it dropped by 5.5 points in January to 52.1 points, mainly amid the falling expectations component.
“The high fiscal uncertainty and expectations of rising taxation amid a high budgetary gap, will negatively impact confidence in the economy in the next 12 months,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
The state budget gap for 2024 is projected to reach 5.1%, while economic growth projections stand at 2.9%.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is forecast to reach 5.57% in the next 12 months.
With regard to the evolution of housing prices in cities, the largest part of participants, 48%, foresee stability in the next 12 months. Also, 70% of respondents believe current prices are overvalued, while 26% consider them to be accurately valued.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 53% in the next 12 months.
The main risks anticipated for the next two years come from outside the economy and are related to armed conflicts between states and disinformation. These are followed by cybernettic attacks.
Next come economic risks, while climate risks rank third.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)