CFA data show that most analysts see an average 4.91 lei to the euro in the six-month horizon.
“Over 90% of respondents expect the Romanian leu to depreciate over the next 12 months, seeing an average of 4.9180 lei to the euro in the six-month horizon and an average 4.9710 lei to the euro in the 12-month horizon”, according to CFA analysts.
The macroeconomic confidence index measured by CFA Romania grew by 11.6 points to 32.4 points in April 2020 compared with March, but fell by 14.2 points compared with April 2019, due to the expectations component of the index.
The current conditions index grew by 1.4 points in April 2020 compared with March, up to 14.6 points, but dropped by 45.3 points compared with April 2019.
The expectations index increased by 16.6 points in April 2020 compared with March, up to 41.3 points, and by 1.4 points compared with April 2019, according to CFA analysts.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).
Around 77% of respondents expect Romania’s credit default swap costs to grow and over 65% think property prices in large cities are overrated.
Most analysts polled by CFA Romania in April 2020 expect the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic will be felt strongly up until the first quarter of 2021, the country’s budget deficit to reach 7.8% in 2020, the GDP to contract 5.2% and the unemployment rate to grow 8.3% until the end of 2020.