Early February 2020, Romania’s central bank lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 3% from a previous projection of 3.1%, and sees the rate at 3.2% at the end of 2021.
“85% of respondents expect the Romanian leu to depreciate over the next 12 months, seeing an average of 4.8626 lei to the euro in the six-month horizon and an average 4.9400 lei to the euro in the 12-month horizon”, according to CFA analysts.
The macroeconomic confidence index measured by CFA Romania fell by 15.1 points to 48.6 points month-on-month in February 2020, and grew by 14.1 points compared to February 2019, due to the expectations component of the index.
The current conditions index decreased by 2.4 points month-on-month in February 2020, down to 70.7 points, but grew by 23.2 points year-on-year in February. The expectations index fell by 21.5 points month-on-month in February 2020, down to 37.5 points, and increased by 9.6 points year-on-year in February, according to CFA analysts.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).