The macroeconomic confidence index measured by CFA Romania grew by 2.5 points to 56.9 points month-on-month in November 2019, and by 12.6 points compared to November 2018, due to the expectations and current conditions components of the index.
The current conditions index increased by 3.8 points month-on-month in November, up to 68.8 points, and by 13.2 points year-on-year in November.
The expectations index grew by 1.8 points month-on-month in November, up to 51 points, and by 12.3 points year-on-year in November.
CFA analysts expect the Romanian leu to depreciate over the next 12 months, seeing an average of 4.8256 lei to the euro in the six-month horizon and an average 4.8663 lei to the euro in the 12-month horizon.
CFA analysts also see the inflation rate averaging at 3.52% over the next 12 months (November 2020/November 2019).
Romania’s annual inflation rate climbed to 3.8% in November 2019 from 3.4% in October, driven by higher food prices, as per data from the country’s statistics board INS. Romania’s central bank has lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 3.8% for 2019, from a previous forecast of 4.2%. The 2020 inflation forecast was also lowered to 3.1% from a previous projection of 3.4%. The central bank expects annual inflation will remain outside the central bank’s target variation band of 1.5%-3.5% throughout the rest of 2019 due to unfavorable shocks in the first half of the year and is then seen stabilizing around the upper band of the target.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).