Data collected by CFA in November shows that for the six-month horizon, over 91% of analysts polled expect the leu to average 5.0517 to the euro, and for the 12-month horizon, analysts expect the leu to average 5.1145 to the euro.
CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index dropped to 56.6 points in November compared with October. Compared with November 2020, the index grew by 12.1 points. “This situation is due to a divergent evolution of the two components of the index”, explained CFA analysts.
Also, 75% of analysts polled estimate the impact of the pandemic will be felt at least until the fourth quarter of 2022.
The poll also shows Romania’s 2021 budget deficit reached the anticipated average value of 7.3% and for 2022 it is seen at 6% of GDP. Romania’s three-month ROBOR index, the interbank interest rate used as a reference to calculate variable interests for loans in lei taken out before May 2019, is projected to reach 3.22% over the next 12-month horizon. The country’s economy is expected to grow by 6.6% in real terms in 2021 and by 3.9% in 2022, while the country’s public debt-to-GDP ratio is seen reaching 54.1% on the 12-month horizon
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).