CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index fell by 0.9 percentage points to 73.6 points in August 2021 compared with July. Compared with August 2020, the index grew by 40.3 points. The decline is due to the expectations component of the index.
For the six-month horizon, CFA analysts expect the leu to average 5.0196 to the euro, and, for the 12-month horizon, analysts expect the leu to average 5.0672 to the euro.
Over 95% of analysts polled expect the three-month money market, the interbank interest rate used as a reference to calculate variable interests for loans in lei, to grow, and also expect the country’s central bank to increase the benchmark interest rate at least twice in 2021.
Analysts see Romania’s budget deficit at 6.8% of GDP in 2021 (vs. government target of 7.1%). The also see the country’s economy growing 7.2% in real terms in 2021, with public debt reaching nearly 53% of GDP.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).