Over the six-month horizon, over 93% of analysts estimate an exchange rate of RON4.9653 to the euro. Over the 12-month horizon, the leu is seen at 5.0183 units to the euro.
None of the analysts polled see the leu growing towards the euro or inflation going down.
At the same time, 60% of analysts polled expect residential real estate prices to grow.
CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index stood at 74.5 points in May, the highest level in six years. Compared with May 2020, the index gained 38.4 points.
Over 65% of analysts polled estimate the impact of the pandemic will continue to be felt in 2022 and 2022 expect this impact to extend until the fourth quarter of 2022.
Analysts see Romania’s budget deficit at 6.4% of GDP in 2021 (vs. government target of 7.1%). The also see the country’s economy growing 6.1% in real terms this year, with public debt reaching 54% of GDP.