CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index fell by 16.4 percentage points to 57.2 points in September 2021 compared with August. Compared with September 2020, the index grew by 22.9 points. The decline is due to both components (current conditions and expectations) of the index.
For the six-month horizon, CFA analysts expect the leu to average 4.9985 to the euro, and, for the 12-month horizon, analysts expect the leu to average 5.0547 to the euro.
Analysts see Romania’s budget deficit at 7.1% of GDP in 2021 and the country’s economy growing 6.6% in real terms in 2021, with public debt reaching nearly 54.1% of GDP for the 12-month horizon.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).
55% of analysts polled estimate the impact of the pandemic on the country’s economy will last until the fourth quarter of 2022.