In line with data collected by CFA in April 2024, for the 6-month horizon almost 88% of financial analysts included in the monthly survey anticipate an exchange rate of 5.0172/Euro.
As regards CFA’s macroeconomic confidence indicator, it dropped by 12.3 points to 47.1 points in April, amid the decline in both its components.
“After the correction registered in previous months by the expectations component, the current conditions component also dropped significantly. Thus, both the confidence indicator and its components reached last November levels. These corrections come amid the economic slowdown, despite the significant fiscal stimulus, budgetary gap expansion expectations and expectations of higher taxation in 2025,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
In line with the survey data, the state budget gap is seen at 5.7% for 2024, up from 5.4% from the previous survey, while economic growth expectations declined by 0.8 percentage points to 1.9%.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is anticipated to reach 5.94% in the next 12 months.
With regard to the evolution of housing prices in cities, the largest part of participants, 53%, forecast a decline in the next 12 months, while 23,5% anticipate an increase and the rest of 23.5% stability. At the same time, 70% of participants believe current prices are overvalued, while 30% consider they are accurately assessed.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is seen rising to 55% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)