In line with data CFA collected in May 2024, for the six-month horizon 88% of financial analysts included in the monthly survey anticipate an exchange rate of 5.0130/Euro.
As regards CFA macroeconomic confidence indicator, it edged up in May, by 0.3 points to 47.4 point. This was due to a 1.1-point increase in the current conditions component of the indicator.
The state budget gap is seen at 6%, up from 5.7% in the previous one, while economic growth expectations were flat, at 1.9%.
“May brought up upward adjustment of the budgetary gap expected for this year. Anticipations for inflation and interest rates reentered the downward trend. But bringing inflation back to target will be slow, with fiscal policy as the main risk,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
The three-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is projected to reach 5.71% in the next 12 months.
With regard to housing prices in cities, the largest part of participants, 42%, expect a decline in the next 12 months, while the same percentage anticipate price stability and the rest of 16% an increase. Also, 68% of participants consider current prices are overvalued, while 26% believe they are accurately assessed.
Public debt calculated as a percentage in GDP is expected to rise to 54% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)